Petržalka 2–1 Liptovský Mikuláš: Result & Stats

Petržalka

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Liptovský Mikuláš

D. Bordač 90+3'

P. Danek 28'

F. Appiah 15'

10/15/2023

2. liga · Round 12Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Petržalka46%

×Draw23%

Liptovský Mikuláš31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetržalkaExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Mikuláš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.39

Petržalka

1.73

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.39

Petržalka creates 24% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 73 away

1.83

creates per match

1.59

1.18

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Petržalka

1.83

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.59

allows per match

Petržalka

1.18

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw

69%

Petržalka or Liptovský Mikuláš

77%

Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš

54%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+

24%

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals

82%

Petržalka 2+ goals

52%

Petržalka 3+ goals

25%

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

75%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

40%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)

59%

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.83 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.59 + Petržalka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Petržalka scores more

46%

level

23%

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

31%

Petržalka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

15'

25'

28'

45'

47'

59'

V. Trabalík← A. Macejko

63'

64'

66'

75'

75'

B. Iseni← E. Jendrišek

75'

L. Bielak← T. Gerát

78'

M. Halo← M. Riznič

84'

D. Bordač← V. Sliacky

85'

U. Mazanovský← Ľ. Laura

89'

T. Kachnič← P. Danek

89'

P. Čiernik← M. Babović

90+3'

D. Bordač

Petržalka

Liptovský

72

3

24

14

10

▼

Bartoš

8

▼

Gerát

11

Staš

23

▼

Macejko

20

⚽

Appiah

26

▼

Jendrišek

19

▼

33

23

14

93

11

⚽

▼

Danek

19

Nombil

7

▼

Riznič

20

Kelembet

25

Oršula

9

▼

Babović

79

▼

Sliacky

Manager: M. Kuruc

78'▲M. Halo←▼M. Riznič

84'▲D. Bordač←▼V. Sliacky

89'▲T. Kachnič←▼P. Danek

89'▲P. Čiernik←▼M. Babović

Petržalka substitutes

89Halo24Bordač2Kachnič28Čiernik30Santamaría99Sokol17Vlčák

Manager: J. Haspra

59'▲V. Trabalík←▼A. Macejko

75'▲P. Voško←▼R. Bartoš

75'▲B. Iseni←▼E. Jendrišek

75'▲L. Bielak←▼T. Gerát

85'▲U. Mazanovský←▼Ľ. Laura

Liptovský Mikuláš substitutes

17Trabalík9Voško18Iseni28Bielak12Mazanovský1Húska4Klimek33Lehotský

2. liga: Petržalka 2–1 Liptovský Mikuláš

Petržalka beat Liptovský Mikuláš 2-1 in 2. liga on October 15, 2023.

Goals: F. Appiah (15'), P. Danek (28'), D. Bordač (90+3').

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.

Petržalka vs Liptovský Mikuláš — 2. liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. liga: Petržalka 2–1 Liptovský Mikuláš