Liptovský Mikuláš 2–4 Petržalka: Result & Stats

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Petržalka

A. Macejko 89'

A. Štrba 35'

N. Kelembet 85'

P. Nagy 67'

L. Gašparovič 12', 2'

4/28/2024

2. liga · Round 27Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš49%

×Draw24%

Petržalka27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchPetržalka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.19

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.71

Petržalka

1.19

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 44% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 96 away

1.96

creates per match

1.27

1.10

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.96

Petržalka

1.27

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.10

Petržalka

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Petržalka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Petržalka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

73%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Petržalka

76%

Draw or Petržalka

51%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

27%

Petržalka wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

82%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

51%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

24%

Petržalka 1+ goals

70%

Petržalka 2+ goals

33%

Petržalka 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

65%

Petržalka (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Petržalka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.96 + Petržalka defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Petržalka attack 1.27 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

49%

level

24%

Petržalka scores more

27%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

11'

12'

20'

35'

50'

54'

N. Kelembet← H. Harba

65'

67'

73'

75'

75'

75'

75'

M. Halo← L. Gašparovič

79'

T. Divis

82'

A. Macejko← D. Laktionov

85'

89'

90'

90'

Liptovský

Petržalka

33

97

23

95

5

93

⚽2

▼

Gašparovi

17

⚽

Nagy

8

▼

Begala

11

▼

Danek

10

▼

Harba

25

▼

Oršula

1

Húska

3

⚽

Štrba

14

Diviš

10

Bartoš

11

▼

Staš

12

▼

20

22

9

17

26

▼

Laktionov

Manager: S. Varga

75'▲T. Gerát←▼F. Mráz

75'▲Ľ. Laura←▼T. Staš

82'▲A. Macejko←▼D. Laktionov

Liptovský Mikuláš substitutes

8Gerát19Laura23Macejko6Krajčí18Mazanovský21Kuchárik24Capko33Lehotský72Vajs

Manager: M. Kuruc

54'▲N. Kelembet←▼H. Harba

75'▲D. Špehar←▼P. Danek

75'▲M. Halo←▼L. Gašparovič

90'▲E. Liener←▼F. Oršula

90'▲S. Urgela←▼R. Begala

Petržalka substitutes

20Kelembet9Špehar89Halo27Liener78Urgela2Kachnič99Sokol

Match Recap: Liptovský Mikuláš vs Petržalka

Petržalka beat Liptovský Mikuláš 4-2 in 2. liga on April 28, 2024.

Goals: L. Gašparovič (2', 12'), A. Štrba (35'), P. Nagy (67'), N. Kelembet (85'), A. Macejko (89').

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.

Liptovský Mikuláš vs Petržalka — 2. liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Liptovský Mikuláš vs Petržalka