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Petržalka vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Petržalka
Petržalka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
5/15/20212. liga2. liga · Round 29Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Petržalka53%
×Draw23%
Dubnica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka
1.85
Dubnica
1.19

Petržalka creates 55% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 55 away

creates per match

Petržalka
1.82
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Petržalka
1.18
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw
76%
Petržalka or Dubnica
77%
Draw or Dubnica
47%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+
30%
Dubnica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals
84%
Petržalka 2+ goals
55%
Petržalka 3+ goals
28%
Dubnica 1+ goals
70%
Dubnica 2+ goals
33%
Dubnica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)
68%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.82 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Petržalka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Petržalka scores more
53%
level
23%
Dubnica scores more
24%

Petržalka at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Petržalka 1–1 Dubnica

Petržalka and Dubnica drew 1-1 in 2. liga on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.