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Petrovac vs Sutjeska — First League 2025

Petrovac
Petrovac
Preview
17:00
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
9/6/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Mitar Mico Golis
Big match
39%
Petrovac
model favours
39%28%33%

Petrovac score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Petrovac39%
×Draw28%
Sutjeska33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrovac
1.22
Sutjeska
1.11

Petrovac creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

Petrovac
1.40
Sutjeska
1.48

allows per match

Petrovac
0.75
Sutjeska
1.04

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par
Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

Sutjeska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw
67%
Petrovac or Sutjeska
72%
Draw or Sutjeska
61%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+
17%
Sutjeska wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals
70%
Petrovac 2+ goals
34%
Petrovac 3+ goals
12%
Sutjeska 1+ goals
67%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
30%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)
54%
Sutjeska (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.40 + Sutjeska defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sutjeska attack 1.48 + Petrovac defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Petrovac scores more
39%
level
28%
Sutjeska scores more
33%

Petrovac at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Petrovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 23% of Sutjeska’s matches
  • 69% of Sutjeska’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Petrovac 3 vs Sutjeska 1
  • Petrovac win just 13% against the top half (vs 55% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Petrovac
LLDLD
Sutjeska
LLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrovac vs Sutjeska — Match Preview

Petrovac face Sutjeska on September 6, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Petrovac host Sutjeska at Stadion Mitar Mico Golis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.