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Petrovac vs Sutjeska — First League 2019

Petrovac
Petrovac
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
3/9/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Mitar Mićo Goliš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Petrovac31%
×Draw27%
Sutjeska42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrovac
1.09
Sutjeska
1.33

Sutjeska creates 22% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 123 away

creates per match

Petrovac
1.26
Sutjeska
1.44

allows per match

Petrovac
1.23
Sutjeska
0.93

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par
Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

Sutjeska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw
58%
Petrovac or Sutjeska
73%
Draw or Sutjeska
69%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+
12%
Sutjeska wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals
66%
Petrovac 2+ goals
30%
Petrovac 3+ goals
10%
Sutjeska 1+ goals
74%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
38%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)
42%
Sutjeska (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 124 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.93 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.26 + Sutjeska defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sutjeska attack 1.44 + Petrovac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petrovac scores more
31%
level
27%
Sutjeska scores more
42%

Sutjeska at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Petrovac 1–2 Sutjeska

Sutjeska beat Petrovac 2-1 in First League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Mitar Mićo Goliš in Petrovac na Moru.