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Petrovac vs Rudar Velenje — First League 2019

Petrovac
Petrovac
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
4/25/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion pod Malim brdom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Petrovac48%
×Draw26%
Rudar Velenje26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrovac
1.51
Rudar Velenje
1.04

Petrovac creates 45% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 90 away

creates per match

Petrovac
1.26
Rudar Velenje
0.86

allows per match

Petrovac
1.23
Rudar Velenje
1.76

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par
Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

Rudar Velenje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw
74%
Petrovac or Rudar Velenje
74%
Draw or Rudar Velenje
52%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+
24%
Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals
78%
Petrovac 2+ goals
44%
Petrovac 3+ goals
19%
Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
65%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
28%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)
65%
Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 124 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.26 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.51

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + Petrovac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Petrovac scores more
48%
level
26%
Rudar Velenje scores more
26%

Petrovac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Petrovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Petrovac 3–1 Rudar Velenje

Petrovac beat Rudar Velenje 3-1 in First League on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion pod Malim brdom in Petrovac na Moru.