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Petrovac vs Dečić — First League 2019

Petrovac
Petrovac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dečić
Dečić
5/2/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Mitar Mico Golis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Petrovac34%
×Draw29%
Dečić37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrovac
1.09
Dečić
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 108 away

creates per match

Petrovac
1.26
Dečić
1.08

allows per match

Petrovac
1.23
Dečić
0.93

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par
Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

Dečić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw
63%
Petrovac or Dečić
71%
Draw or Dečić
66%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+
13%
Dečić wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals
66%
Petrovac 2+ goals
30%
Petrovac 3+ goals
10%
Dečić 1+ goals
69%
Dečić 2+ goals
32%
Dečić 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)
48%
Dečić (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 124 matches

Dečić away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.93 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.26 + Dečić defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Dečić attack 1.08 + Petrovac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Petrovac scores more
34%
level
29%
Dečić scores more
37%

Dečić at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrovac vs Dečić

Petrovac and Dečić drew 1-1 in First League on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Mitar Mico Golis in Petrovac.