Petrovac 3–3 Buducnost Podgorica: Result & Stats

Petrovac

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Buducnost Podgorica

4/6/2025

First League · Round 28Stadion Mitar Mićo Goliš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Petrovac30%

×Draw26%

Buducnost Podgorica45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrovacExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.49

Petrovac

1.16

Buducnost Podgorica

1.49

Buducnost Podgorica creates 28% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 123 away

1.26

creates per match

1.75

1.23

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Petrovac

1.26

Buducnost Podgorica

1.75

allows per match

Petrovac

1.23

Buducnost Podgorica

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw

55%

Petrovac or Buducnost Podgorica

74%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

70%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+

12%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals

69%

Petrovac 2+ goals

32%

Petrovac 3+ goals

11%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

77%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

44%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)

40%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 124 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.26 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Petrovac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Petrovac scores more

30%

level

26%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

45%

Buducnost Podgorica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff