Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Petrolul Ploiesti vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
Preview
17:00
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
12/5/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 18
Big match
40%
Universitatea Craiova
model favours
32%28%40%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti32%
×Draw28%
Universitatea Craiova40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.10
Universitatea Craiova
1.25

Universitatea Craiova creates 14% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 155 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.09
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.13
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
60%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Universitatea Craiova
72%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
68%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
13%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
67%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
30%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
10%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
71%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
36%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
45%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.09 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
32%
level
28%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
40%

Universitatea Craiova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Petrolul Ploiesti’s matches
  • Petrolul Ploiesti sit 12, Universitatea Craiova 1 in the table
  • Petrolul Ploiesti fall short of their xG (0.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ploiesti
DDLWL
Craiova
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrolul Ploiesti face Universitatea Craiova (Liga I)

Liga I returns with Petrolul Ploiesti hosting Universitatea Craiova. Match starts December 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.