Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Petrolul Ploiesti vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
3/18/2024Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 1Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti39%
×Draw29%
U Craiova 194833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.20
U Craiova 1948
1.07

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 12% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 59 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.09
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.13
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
67%
Petrolul Ploiesti or U Craiova 1948
71%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
61%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
17%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
70%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
34%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
12%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
66%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
29%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
55%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.09 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
39%
level
29%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
33%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrolul Ploiesti vs U Craiova 1948

Petrolul Ploiesti beat U Craiova 1948 1-0 in Liga I on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.