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Petrolul Ploiesti vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
10/25/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti46%
×Draw28%
U Craiova 194826%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.36
U Craiova 1948
0.96

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 29 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
U Craiova 1948
1.24

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
U Craiova 1948
1.10

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
74%
Petrolul Ploiesti or U Craiova 1948
72%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
54%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
22%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
74%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
39%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
16%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
62%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
25%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
63%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
46%
level
28%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
26%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 U Craiova 1948

U Craiova 1948 beat Petrolul Ploiesti 1-0 in Liga II on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.