Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Petrolul Ploiesti vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
CANC
08:00
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
5/2/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti47%
×Draw26%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.50
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.09

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 38% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 21 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.38

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
72%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
74%
Draw or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
53%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
23%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
78%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
44%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
19%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
66%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
30%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
63%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
47%
level
26%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
28%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrolul Ploiesti vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele — Match Preview

Petrolul Ploiesti face Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele on May 2, 2020 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.