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Petrolul Ploiesti vs Pandurii TG JIU — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
CANC
14:00
Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
4/8/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 29Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti65%
×Draw21%
Pandurii TG JIU15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.98
Pandurii TG JIU
0.81

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 144% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 44 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
Pandurii TG JIU
0.95

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
Pandurii TG JIU
2.34

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
85%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Pandurii TG JIU
79%
Draw or Pandurii TG JIU
35%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
40%
Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
86%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
59%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
31%
Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
56%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
19%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
82%
Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.98

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
65%
level
21%
Pandurii TG JIU scores more
15%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrolul Ploiesti vs Pandurii TG JIU — Match Preview

Petrolul Ploiesti face Pandurii TG JIU on April 8, 2020 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Petrolul Ploiesti host Pandurii TG JIU at Stadionul Ilie Oană.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.