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Petrolul Ploiesti vs FC Clinceni — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
6/1/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 38Stadionul Ilie Oana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti36%
×Draw28%
FC Clinceni36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.21
FC Clinceni
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 19 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
FC Clinceni
1.74

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
FC Clinceni
0.79

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
64%
Petrolul Ploiesti or FC Clinceni
72%
Draw or FC Clinceni
64%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
15%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
70%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
34%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
12%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
70%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
34%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
50%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + FC Clinceni defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Clinceni attack 1.74 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
36%
level
28%
FC Clinceni scores more
36%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrolul Ploiesti 2 – 3 FC Clinceni

FC Clinceni beat Petrolul Ploiesti 3-2 in Liga II on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oana.