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Petrolul Ploiesti vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
10/9/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 11Stadionul Ilie Oană (Ploieşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti65%
×Draw21%
CS Luceafarul Oradea14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.94
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.76

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 155% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 19 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
86%
Petrolul Ploiesti or CS Luceafarul Oradea
79%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
35%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
40%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
86%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
58%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
30%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
53%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
18%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
82%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
65%
level
21%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
14%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrolul Ploiesti 6 – 2 CS Luceafarul Oradea

Petrolul Ploiesti beat CS Luceafarul Oradea 6-2 in Liga II on October 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană (Ploieşti).