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Petrolul Ploiesti vs ASA Targu Mures — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ASA Targu Mures
ASA Targu Mures
M. Ionita 44'
B. Kocsis 37'
7/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti54%
×Draw23%
ASA Targu Mures23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.83
ASA Targu Mures
1.13

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.67
ASA Targu Mures
1.25

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
2.00

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
ASA Targu Mures+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

ASA Targu Mures →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
77%
Petrolul Ploiesti or ASA Targu Mures
77%
Draw or ASA Targu Mures
46%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
30%
ASA Targu Mures wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
84%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
54%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
28%
ASA Targu Mures 1+ goals
68%
ASA Targu Mures 2+ goals
31%
ASA Targu Mures 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
70%
ASA Targu Mures (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

ASA Targu Mures away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.67 + ASA Targu Mures defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

ASA Targu Mures attack 1.25 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
54%
level
23%
ASA Targu Mures scores more
23%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
B. Kocsis
44'
M. Ionita

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrolul Ploiesti vs ASA Targu Mures

Petrolul Ploiesti and ASA Targu Mures drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2026.

Goals: B. Kocsis (37'), M. Ionita (44').