Petrolul Ploiesti 5–0 Aerostar Bacau

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Aerostar Bacau

9/28/2018

Liga II · Round 9Stadionul Ilie Oană (Ploieşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti63%

×Draw21%

Aerostar Bacau15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchAerostar Bacau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.82

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.93

Aerostar Bacau

0.82

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 135% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

1.63

creates per match

0.97

0.67

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.63

Aerostar Bacau

0.97

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.67

Aerostar Bacau

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Aerostar Bacau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

85%

Petrolul Ploiesti or Aerostar Bacau

79%

Draw or Aerostar Bacau

37%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

38%

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

85%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

57%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

30%

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals

56%

Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals

20%

Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

81%

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.93

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

63%

level

21%

Aerostar Bacau scores more

15%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff