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Petrolul Ploiesti vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
11/12/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti54%
×Draw25%
ACS Sirineasa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.59
ACS Sirineasa
0.89

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 79% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 84 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
79%
Petrolul Ploiesti or ACS Sirineasa
75%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
46%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
28%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
80%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
47%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
21%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
59%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
22%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
72%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
54%
level
25%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
21%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrolul Ploiesti vs ACS Sirineasa

Petrolul Ploiesti beat ACS Sirineasa 3-1 in Liga II on November 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.