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Petrolero de Anzoategui vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
FT
1 – 1
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
5/6/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 15Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui49%
×Draw27%
Libertador FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.43
Libertador FC
0.93

Petrolero de Anzoategui creates 54% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 45 away

creates per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.53
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolero de Anzoategui ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Petrolero de Anzoategui or draw
75%
Petrolero de Anzoategui or Libertador FC
73%
Draw or Libertador FC
51%

Winning margin

Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
24%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
76%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
42%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
17%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
61%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
24%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
66%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolero de Anzoategui at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.53 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
49%
level
27%
Libertador FC scores more
25%

Petrolero de Anzoategui at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Petrolero de Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrolero de Anzoategui 1 – 1 Libertador FC

Petrolero de Anzoategui and Libertador FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).