Petrojet 0–1 Ismaily SC: Result & Stats

Petrojet

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ismaily SC

B. Shilongo 7'

1/24/2019

Premier League · Round 19Gehaz El Reyada Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Petrojet35%

×Draw30%

Ismaily SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrojetExpected goals in this matchIsmaily SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.04

Petrojet

1.05

Ismaily SC

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.15

creates per match

0.67

1.42

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Petrojet

1.15

Ismaily SC

0.67

allows per match

Petrojet

1.42

Ismaily SC

0.95

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Petrojet-0.15scores less

Ismaily SC-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrojet ↓

Ismaily SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Petrojet or draw

65%

Petrojet or Ismaily SC

70%

Draw or Ismaily SC

65%

Winning margin

Petrojet wins by 2+

14%

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Petrojet 1+ goals

65%

Petrojet 2+ goals

28%

Petrojet 3+ goals

9%

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

65%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

28%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Petrojet (draw refunded)

50%

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrojet at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrojet attack 1.15 + Ismaily SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ismaily SC attack 0.67 + Petrojet defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Petrojet scores more

35%

level

30%

Ismaily SC scores more

35%

Petrojet at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

B. Shilongo

46'

Hamada Tolba← Ahmed El Sebaie

57'

Momen Ibrahim← Ahmed El Agouz

71'

Ahmed Temsah← Abdelrahman El Sewisi

75'

Omar El Wahsh← Mahmoud Metwalli

80'

Wagih Abdel Hakim← Abdel Rahman Magdi

90'

Karim Bambo← B. Shilongo

Petrojet

Ismaily

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Moamen Soliman

46'▲Hamada Tolba←▼Ahmed El Sebaie

57'▲Momen Ibrahim←▼Ahmed El Agouz

71'▲Ahmed Temsah←▼Abdelrahman El Sewisi

Petrojet substitutes

TolbaIbrahimTemsah

Manager: Č. Janevski

75'▲Omar El Wahsh←▼Mahmoud Metwalli

80'▲Wagih Abdel Hakim←▼Abdel Rahman Magdi

90'▲Karim Bambo←▼B. Shilongo

Ismaily SC substitutes

WahshHakimBambo