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Petrojet vs El Gouna FC — League Cup 2021

Petrojet
Petrojet
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Gouna FC
El Gouna FC
R. El Metwaly 82' (pen)
4/6/2025League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Petrojet35%
×Draw28%
El Gouna FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrojet
1.14
El Gouna FC
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Petrojet
1.00
El Gouna FC
1.18

allows per match

Petrojet
1.14
El Gouna FC
1.27

finishing

Petrojet+0.00on par
El Gouna FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrojet ↓

El Gouna FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Petrojet or draw
64%
Petrojet or El Gouna FC
72%
Draw or El Gouna FC
65%

Winning margin

Petrojet wins by 2+
14%
El Gouna FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Petrojet 1+ goals
68%
Petrojet 2+ goals
32%
Petrojet 3+ goals
11%
El Gouna FC 1+ goals
69%
El Gouna FC 2+ goals
32%
El Gouna FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Petrojet (draw refunded)
49%
El Gouna FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrojet at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

El Gouna FC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrojet attack 1.00 + El Gouna FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

El Gouna FC attack 1.18 + Petrojet defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Petrojet scores more
35%
level
28%
El Gouna FC scores more
36%

El Gouna FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "El Gouna FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
B. El Sayed
46'
A. El Zahdi← A. El Zahdi
48'
B. El Sayed← N. El Sayed
60'
M. Mohsen← M. Mohsen
60'
A. Reda← A. Randrianantenaina
63'
B. Moussa← B. Moussa
63'
A. Farouk← A. Farouk
69'
A. El Zahdi← M. Imad
72'
L. Emmanuel← L. Emmanuel
72'
M. Tawfik← I. Abdallah
82'
R. El MetwalyPenalty
85'
A. G. Ahmed M.
87'
T. Ojo
90+1'
R. El Metwaly← M. Hesham

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrojet vs El Gouna FC

Petrojet beat El Gouna FC 1-0 in League Cup on April 6, 2025.

Goals: R. El Metwaly (82' pen).

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.