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Petrojet vs El Entag El Harby — Premier League 2018

Petrojet
Petrojet
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Entag El Harby
El Entag El Harby
2/21/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Egyptian Army Stadium (Suez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Petrojet37%
×Draw29%
El Entag El Harby34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrojet
1.16
El Entag El Harby
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 51 away

creates per match

Petrojet
0.87
El Entag El Harby
1.14

allows per match

Petrojet
1.04
El Entag El Harby
1.45

finishing

Petrojet+0.00on par
El Entag El Harby+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrojet ↓

El Entag El Harby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Petrojet or draw
66%
Petrojet or El Entag El Harby
71%
Draw or El Entag El Harby
63%

Winning margin

Petrojet wins by 2+
16%
El Entag El Harby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Petrojet 1+ goals
69%
Petrojet 2+ goals
32%
Petrojet 3+ goals
11%
El Entag El Harby 1+ goals
66%
El Entag El Harby 2+ goals
30%
El Entag El Harby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Petrojet (draw refunded)
52%
El Entag El Harby (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrojet at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

El Entag El Harby away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrojet attack 0.87 + El Entag El Harby defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

El Entag El Harby attack 1.14 + Petrojet defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Petrojet scores more
37%
level
29%
El Entag El Harby scores more
34%

Petrojet at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrojet vs El Entag El Harby

Petrojet beat El Entag El Harby 1-0 in Premier League on February 21, 2019.

The match was played at Egyptian Army Stadium (Suez).