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Petrocub vs Spartanii Selemet — Super Liga 2026

Petrocub
Petrocub
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
4/12/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Round - 5Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Petrocub70%
×Draw18%
Spartanii Selemet12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrocub
2.25
Spartanii Selemet
0.80

Petrocub creates 181% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 48 away

creates per match

Petrocub
2.16
Spartanii Selemet
1.00

allows per match

Petrocub
0.61
Spartanii Selemet
2.33

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw
88%
Petrocub or Spartanii Selemet
82%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
30%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+
46%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals
89%
Petrocub 2+ goals
65%
Petrocub 3+ goals
39%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
55%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
19%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)
85%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.61 · 102 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 2.16 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.25

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Petrocub defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Petrocub scores more
70%
level
18%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
12%

Petrocub at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrocub vs Spartanii Selemet

Petrocub beat Spartanii Selemet 3-1 in Super Liga on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Hînceşti.