Petrocub 9–1 Saxan: Result & Stats | Cupa

Petrocub

FT

9 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Saxan

D. Pușcaș 88', 73'

D. Demian 87'

C. Sandu 81', 75'

M. Plătică 50', 21', 5'

V. Ambros 10'

L. Bamba 48'

10/31/2023

Cupa · Round of 16Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Petrocub64%

×Draw16%

Saxan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrocubExpected goals in this matchSaxan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.58

2.09

Petrocub

3.58

Saxan

2.09

Petrocub creates 71% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

4.46

creates per match

3.57

0.62

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Petrocub

4.46

Saxan

3.57

allows per match

Petrocub

0.62

Saxan

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par

Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Saxan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw

79%

Petrocub or Saxan

84%

Draw or Saxan

36%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+

45%

Saxan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals

97%

Petrocub 2+ goals

86%

Petrocub 3+ goals

67%

Saxan 1+ goals

88%

Saxan 2+ goals

62%

Saxan 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)

75%

Saxan (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 4.46, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Saxan away — creates 3.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 4.46 + Saxan defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 3.58

Saxan attack 3.57 + Petrocub defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Petrocub scores more

64%

level

16%

Saxan scores more

21%

Petrocub at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

10'

21'

48'

50'

73'

75'

81'

87'

88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff