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Petro de Luanda vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
Yano 68'
Tiago Azulão 41'
J. Daoudi 59'
2/19/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group D - 2Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Petro de Luanda42%
×Draw32%
Wydad AC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.06
Wydad AC
0.75

Petro de Luanda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
1.15
Wydad AC
0.83

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.67
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
75%
Petro de Luanda or Wydad AC
68%
Draw or Wydad AC
58%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
17%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
65%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
29%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
9%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
53%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
17%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
62%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 1.15 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
42%
level
32%
Wydad AC scores more
25%

Petro de Luanda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
YanoPetro de LuandaPetro de Luanda · F
7.3

Match Events

16'
Yahya Jabrane
41'
Reda Jaadi
41'
Tiago Azulão↳ Gleison
46'
A. Farhane← C. Comara
46'
A. Hassouni← Muaid Ellafi
49'
Jalal Daoudi
59'
J. Daoudi
60'
H. Ait Allal← R. Jaadi
63'
Anderson Cruz← Gleison
68'
Yano↳ Jaredi
74'
J. Tsoumou← S. Benyachou
74'
M. Chrachem← A. Serrhat
79'
Maya← Yano
84'
To Carneiro
86'
Vidinho← Jaredi
86'
Ito← Pedro Pessoa
90+1'
Anderson Cruz

Possession

64%Petro

Shots

7Petro

Pass accuracy

55%Petro

Statistics

PetroWydad
Overview
64%Possession36%
7Total Shots5
4Corners1
15Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots5
2On Target1
3Off Target4
2Blocked0
3Inside Box2
4Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
528Total Passes294
443Accurate Passes207
84%Pass Accuracy70%
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs Wydad AC

Petro de Luanda beat Wydad AC 2-1 in CAF Champions League on February 19, 2022.

Goals: Tiago Azulão (41'), J. Daoudi (59'), Yano (68').

Petro de Luanda controlled possession (64%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.