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Petro de Luanda vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
A. El Kaabi 71'
2/23/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 2Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Petro de Luanda42%
×Draw32%
Wydad AC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.06
Wydad AC
0.75

Petro de Luanda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
1.15
Wydad AC
0.83

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.67
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
75%
Petro de Luanda or Wydad AC
68%
Draw or Wydad AC
58%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
17%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
65%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
29%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
9%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
53%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
17%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
62%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 1.15 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
42%
level
32%
Wydad AC scores more
25%

Petro de Luanda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
Muaid EllafiWydad ACWydad AC · M
7.9

Match Events

12'
Y. Hénin← A. Tagnaouti
46'
M. Ounajem← S. Msuva
46'
A. Hassouni← W. El Karti
51'
Pedro Francisco
68'
Dany← Manguxi
68'
Yano← Tiago Azulão
68'
S. Saidi← S. El Moudane
71'
A. El Kaabi↳ Muaid Ellafi
75'
Toni← Além
81'
Megue← Job
90'
Ito
90+1'
C. Comara← Muaid Ellafi

Possession

53%Petro

Shots

14Petro

Pass accuracy

53%Petro

Statistics

PetroWydad
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots10
7Corners5
12Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots10
1On Target3
8Off Target4
5Blocked3
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
337Total Passes300
284Accurate Passes227
84%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

CAF Champions League: Petro de Luanda 0–1 Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Petro de Luanda 1-0 in CAF Champions League on February 23, 2021.

Goals: A. El Kaabi (71').

Petro de Luanda controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.