Petro de Luanda 2–2 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

Petro de Luanda

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Wydad AC

Danny 45'

Herenilson 21'

Yahya Jabrane 58' (pen)

Kasengu Kazadi 14'

1/11/2020

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 4Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Petro de Luanda42%

×Draw32%

Wydad AC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petro de LuandaExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.75

Petro de Luanda

1.06

Wydad AC

0.75

Petro de Luanda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

1.15

creates per match

0.83

0.67

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Petro de Luanda

1.15

Wydad AC

0.83

allows per match

Petro de Luanda

0.67

Wydad AC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw

75%

Petro de Luanda or Wydad AC

68%

Draw or Wydad AC

58%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

17%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

65%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

29%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

9%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

53%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

17%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

62%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 1.15 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more

42%

level

32%

Wydad AC scores more

25%

Petro de Luanda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Herenilson

Petro de Luanda · M

8.1

Match Events

14'

Kasengu Kazadi

21'

Herenilson↳ Job

32'

Picas← Job

37'

37'

42'

45'

46'

Ibrahim Najm Eddine← Brahim Nakach

51'

Picas

58'

Yahya JabranePenalty

61'

Herenilson

68'

Dolly Menga← Isaac Mensah

69'

Zouhair El Moutaraji← Badie Aouk

82'

Yano← Alem

83'

Amin Tighazoui← Aymane El Hassouni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PetroWydad

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots9

4Corners1

19Fouls34

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target5

8Off Target2

1Blocked2

2Inside Box6

11Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

401Total Passes401

328Accurate Passes327

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls34

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2