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Petro de Luanda vs União de Malanje — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
União de Malanje
União de Malanje
11/18/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Petro de Luanda75%
×Draw18%
União de Malanje7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
2.04
União de Malanje
0.46

Petro de Luanda creates 343% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 14 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
União de Malanje
0.50

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.43
União de Malanje
2.07

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
União de Malanje+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

União de Malanje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
93%
Petro de Luanda or União de Malanje
82%
Draw or União de Malanje
25%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
49%
União de Malanje wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
87%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
60%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
33%
União de Malanje 1+ goals
37%
União de Malanje 2+ goals
8%
União de Malanje 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
91%
União de Malanje (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.43 · 110 matches

União de Malanje away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + União de Malanje defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

União de Malanje attack 0.50 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
75%
level
18%
União de Malanje scores more
7%

Petro de Luanda at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs União de Malanje

Petro de Luanda and União de Malanje drew 0-0 in Girabola on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.