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Petro de Luanda vs São Salvador — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
São Salvador
São Salvador
4/24/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Petro de Luanda66%
×Draw23%
São Salvador11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.69
São Salvador
0.51

Petro de Luanda creates 231% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 44 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.05
São Salvador
0.59

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.42
São Salvador
1.34

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

São Salvador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
89%
Petro de Luanda or São Salvador
77%
Draw or São Salvador
34%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
38%
São Salvador wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
82%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
50%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
24%
São Salvador 1+ goals
40%
São Salvador 2+ goals
9%
São Salvador 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
86%
São Salvador (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.42 · 101 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.05 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.69

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
66%
level
23%
São Salvador scores more
11%

Petro de Luanda at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Petro de Luanda 5–0 São Salvador

Petro de Luanda beat São Salvador 5-0 in Girabola on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.