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Petro de Luanda vs Recreativo da Caála — Girabola 2025

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
2 – 1
Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
11/3/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Petro de Luanda63%
×Draw23%
Recreativo da Caála15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.75
Recreativo da Caála
0.70

Petro de Luanda creates 150% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
1.97
Recreativo da Caála
0.92

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.48
Recreativo da Caála
1.54

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Recreativo da Caála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
85%
Petro de Luanda or Recreativo da Caála
77%
Draw or Recreativo da Caála
37%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
36%
Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
83%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
52%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
25%
Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
50%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
16%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
81%
Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.48 · 29 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 1.97 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.92 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
63%
level
23%
Recreativo da Caála scores more
15%

Petro de Luanda at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs Recreativo da Caála

Petro de Luanda beat Recreativo da Caála 2-1 in Girabola on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.