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Petro de Luanda vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
3 – 0
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
2/20/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 12Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Petro de Luanda74%
×Draw19%
Ferroviário do Huambo7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.95
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.42

Petro de Luanda creates 364% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 27 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.43
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
93%
Petro de Luanda or Ferroviário do Huambo
81%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
26%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
47%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
86%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
58%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
31%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
34%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
7%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
91%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.43 · 110 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
74%
level
19%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
7%

Petro de Luanda at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs Ferroviário do Huambo

Petro de Luanda beat Ferroviário do Huambo 3-0 in Girabola on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.