Petro de Luanda 6–0 Dragão: Result & Stats

Petro de Luanda

FT

6 – 0

Dragão

4/5/2023

Girabola · Round 19Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Petro de Luanda81%

×Draw14%

Dragão5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petro de LuandaExpected goals in this matchDragão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

0.43

Petro de Luanda

2.41

Dragão

0.43

Petro de Luanda creates 460% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 14 away

2.02

creates per match

0.43

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Petro de Luanda

2.02

Dragão

0.43

allows per match

Petro de Luanda

0.43

Dragão

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Dragão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw

95%

Petro de Luanda or Dragão

86%

Draw or Dragão

19%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

58%

Dragão wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

91%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

69%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

43%

Dragão 1+ goals

35%

Dragão 2+ goals

7%

Dragão 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

94%

Dragão (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.43 · 109 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.02 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.41

Dragão attack 0.43 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more

81%

level

14%

Dragão scores more

5%

Petro de Luanda at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff