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Petro de Luanda vs CD Lunda-Sul — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Lunda-Sul
CD Lunda-Sul
3/7/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 7Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Petro de Luanda60%
×Draw25%
CD Lunda-Sul15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.57
CD Lunda-Sul
0.63

Petro de Luanda creates 149% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 75 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
CD Lunda-Sul
0.83

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.42
CD Lunda-Sul
1.13

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

CD Lunda-Sul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
85%
Petro de Luanda or CD Lunda-Sul
75%
Draw or CD Lunda-Sul
40%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
33%
CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
79%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
46%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
21%
CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals
47%
CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals
13%
CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
80%
CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.42 · 113 matches

CD Lunda-Sul away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.83 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
60%
level
25%
CD Lunda-Sul scores more
15%

Petro de Luanda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs CD Lunda-Sul

Petro de Luanda and CD Lunda-Sul drew 0-0 in Girabola on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.