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CD Lunda-Sul vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

CD Lunda-Sul
CD Lunda-Sul
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
1/17/2026GirabolaGirabola · Round 11Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CD Lunda-Sul24%
×Draw29%
Petro de Luanda47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Lunda-Sul
0.80
Petro de Luanda
1.25

Petro de Luanda creates 56% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 109 away

creates per match

CD Lunda-Sul
0.99
Petro de Luanda
1.75

allows per match

CD Lunda-Sul
0.74
Petro de Luanda
0.61

finishing

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lunda-Sul ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CD Lunda-Sul or draw
53%
CD Lunda-Sul or Petro de Luanda
71%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
76%

Winning margin

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+
7%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals
55%
CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals
19%
CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals
5%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
71%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
36%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)
34%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lunda-Sul at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.74 · 70 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.99 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CD Lunda-Sul scores more
24%
level
29%
Petro de Luanda scores more
47%

Petro de Luanda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Lunda-Sul vs Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat CD Lunda-Sul 2-0 in Girabola on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão in Dundo.