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Petro de Luanda vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
9/24/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Petro de Luanda58%
×Draw25%
Bravos do Maquis FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.55
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.69

Petro de Luanda creates 125% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 106 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.43
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
83%
Petro de Luanda or Bravos do Maquis FC
75%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
42%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
31%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
79%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
46%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
20%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
50%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
15%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
78%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.43 · 110 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
58%
level
25%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
17%

Petro de Luanda at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Petro de Luanda 2–1 Bravos do Maquis FC

Petro de Luanda beat Bravos do Maquis FC 2-1 in Girabola on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.