Petro de Luanda 2–1 Académica do Lobito

Petro de Luanda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Académica do Lobito

3/16/2024

Girabola · Round 6Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Petro de Luanda65%

×Draw23%

Académica do Lobito12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petro de LuandaExpected goals in this matchAcadémica do Lobito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.55

Petro de Luanda

1.67

Académica do Lobito

0.55

Petro de Luanda creates 204% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 100 away

2.01

creates per match

0.68

0.42

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Petro de Luanda

2.01

Académica do Lobito

0.68

allows per match

Petro de Luanda

0.42

Académica do Lobito

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Académica do Lobito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw

88%

Petro de Luanda or Académica do Lobito

77%

Draw or Académica do Lobito

35%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

37%

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

81%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

50%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

23%

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals

42%

Académica do Lobito 2+ goals

11%

Académica do Lobito 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

85%

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.42 · 113 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more

65%

level

23%

Académica do Lobito scores more

12%

Petro de Luanda at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff