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Académica do Lobito vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
4/20/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 21Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Académica do Lobito26%
×Draw29%
Petro de Luanda45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Lobito
0.87
Petro de Luanda
1.25

Petro de Luanda creates 44% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 109 away

creates per match

Académica do Lobito
1.13
Petro de Luanda
1.75

allows per match

Académica do Lobito
0.76
Petro de Luanda
0.61

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw
55%
Académica do Lobito or Petro de Luanda
71%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
74%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
9%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
58%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
22%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
6%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
71%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
36%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
36%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.87

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more
26%
level
29%
Petro de Luanda scores more
45%

Petro de Luanda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Académica do Lobito 0–4 Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Académica do Lobito 4-0 in Girabola on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.