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Petřín Plzeň vs Tochovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tochovice
Tochovice
10/1/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Velodrome Plzeň hřiště 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Petřín Plzeň64%
×Draw19%
Tochovice18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
2.40
Tochovice
1.19

Petřín Plzeň creates 102% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Tochovice
1.13

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Tochovice
2.33

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Tochovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
82%
Petřín Plzeň or Tochovice
81%
Draw or Tochovice
36%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
42%
Tochovice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
91%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
69%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
42%
Tochovice 1+ goals
70%
Tochovice 2+ goals
33%
Tochovice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
78%
Tochovice (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Tochovice defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.40

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
64%
level
19%
Tochovice scores more
18%

Petřín Plzeň at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Petřín Plzeň 1–2 Tochovice

Tochovice beat Petřín Plzeň 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Velodrome Plzeň hřiště 3 in Plzeň.