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Petřín Plzeň vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
9/3/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 5Velodrome Plzeň hřiště 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Petřín Plzeň46%
×Draw22%
Sokol Lom33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
1.97
Sokol Lom
1.64

Petřín Plzeň creates 20% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 34 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
67%
Petřín Plzeň or Sokol Lom
78%
Draw or Sokol Lom
54%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
26%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
86%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
58%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
31%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
49%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
58%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
46%
level
22%
Sokol Lom scores more
33%

Petřín Plzeň at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petřín Plzeň vs Sokol Lom

Sokol Lom beat Petřín Plzeň 4-3 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Velodrome Plzeň hřiště 3 in Plzeň.