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Petřín Plzeň vs Slavoj Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
CANC
09:00
Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
3/27/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Velodrome Plzeň hřiště 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Petřín Plzeň68%
×Draw18%
Slavoj Mýto15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
2.42
Slavoj Mýto
1.03

Petřín Plzeň creates 135% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 22 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Slavoj Mýto
0.82

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Slavoj Mýto
2.36

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Slavoj Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
85%
Petřín Plzeň or Slavoj Mýto
82%
Draw or Slavoj Mýto
32%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
45%
Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
91%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
69%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
43%
Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
64%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
28%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
82%
Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Slavoj Mýto away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Slavoj Mýto defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.42

Slavoj Mýto attack 0.82 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
68%
level
18%
Slavoj Mýto scores more
15%

Petřín Plzeň at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Petřín Plzeň host Slavoj Mýto

March 27, 2021: Petřín Plzeň take on Slavoj Mýto in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Petřín Plzeň host Slavoj Mýto at Velodrome Plzeň hřiště 3.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.