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Petřín Plzeň vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
4/2/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 19Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Petřín Plzeň65%
×Draw18%
Jindřichův Hradec17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
2.49
Jindřichův Hradec
1.19

Petřín Plzeň creates 109% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 56 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
83%
Petřín Plzeň or Jindřichův Hradec
82%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
35%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
43%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
92%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
71%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
45%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
70%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
33%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
80%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.49

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
65%
level
18%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
17%

Petřín Plzeň at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Petřín Plzeň 1–1 Jindřichův Hradec

Petřín Plzeň and Jindřichův Hradec drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň in Plzeň.