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Petřín Plzeň vs Horní Bříza — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
4/7/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 21Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Petřín Plzeň74%
×Draw16%
Horní Bříza10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
2.54
Horní Bříza
0.82

Petřín Plzeň creates 210% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Horní Bříza
0.40

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Horní Bříza
2.60

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Horní Bříza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
90%
Petřín Plzeň or Horní Bříza
84%
Draw or Horní Bříza
26%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
52%
Horní Bříza wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
92%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
72%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
46%
Horní Bříza 1+ goals
56%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
20%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
88%
Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.54

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
74%
level
16%
Horní Bříza scores more
10%

Petřín Plzeň at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petřín Plzeň vs Horní Bříza

Petřín Plzeň beat Horní Bříza 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň in Plzeň.