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Petřín Plzeň vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
CANC
15:00
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
6/5/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 27Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Petřín Plzeň73%
×Draw15%
Český lev - Union Beroun11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
2.74
Český lev - Union Beroun
1.00

Petřín Plzeň creates 174% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
89%
Petřín Plzeň or Český lev - Union Beroun
85%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
27%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
52%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
93%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
75%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
51%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
63%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
26%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
87%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.74

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
73%
level
15%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
11%

Petřín Plzeň at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Petřín Plzeň host Český lev - Union Beroun

June 5, 2021: Petřín Plzeň take on Český lev - Union Beroun in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Petřín Plzeň host Český lev - Union Beroun at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.