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Petřín Plzeň II vs Slavia Vejprnice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň II
Petřín Plzeň II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
8/30/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 4Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Petřín Plzeň II49%
×Draw23%
Slavia Vejprnice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň II
1.83
Slavia Vejprnice
1.35

Petřín Plzeň II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň II
1.00
Slavia Vejprnice
0.53

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň II
2.17
Slavia Vejprnice
2.67

finishing

Petřín Plzeň II+0.00on par
Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň II ↓

Slavia Vejprnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň II or draw
72%
Petřín Plzeň II or Slavia Vejprnice
77%
Draw or Slavia Vejprnice
51%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň II wins by 2+
27%
Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň II 1+ goals
84%
Petřín Plzeň II 2+ goals
54%
Petřín Plzeň II 3+ goals
28%
Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
74%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
39%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň II (draw refunded)
63%
Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Slavia Vejprnice away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň II attack 1.00 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Slavia Vejprnice attack 0.53 + Petřín Plzeň II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Petřín Plzeň II scores more
49%
level
23%
Slavia Vejprnice scores more
28%

Petřín Plzeň II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petřín Plzeň II 1 – 1 Slavia Vejprnice

Petřín Plzeň II and Slavia Vejprnice drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň in Plzeň.