Peterhead 1–3 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Peterhead

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

ST Johnstone

11/14/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 7Balmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Peterhead20%

×Draw22%

ST Johnstone58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.94

Peterhead

1.04

ST Johnstone

1.94

ST Johnstone creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.13

creates per match

1.74

2.13

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Peterhead

1.13

ST Johnstone

1.74

allows per match

Peterhead

2.13

ST Johnstone

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

ST Johnstone →

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

42%

Peterhead or ST Johnstone

78%

Draw or ST Johnstone

80%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

65%

Peterhead 2+ goals

28%

Peterhead 3+ goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

86%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

58%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

26%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.13 + ST Johnstone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

ST Johnstone attack 1.74 + Peterhead defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Peterhead scores more

20%

level

22%

ST Johnstone scores more

58%

ST Johnstone at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff