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Peterhead vs Raith Rovers — League #183 2026

Peterhead
Peterhead
CANC
00:00
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
3/14/2020League #183League #183 · Round 29Balmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Peterhead21%
×Draw21%
Raith Rovers58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
1.13
Raith Rovers
2.04

Raith Rovers creates 81% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.25
Raith Rovers
2.25

allows per match

Peterhead
1.83
Raith Rovers
1.00

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
42%
Peterhead or Raith Rovers
79%
Draw or Raith Rovers
79%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
8%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
68%
Peterhead 2+ goals
31%
Peterhead 3+ goals
11%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
87%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
60%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
26%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.25 + Raith Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Raith Rovers attack 2.25 + Peterhead defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Peterhead scores more
21%
level
21%
Raith Rovers scores more
58%

Raith Rovers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peterhead host Raith Rovers

March 14, 2020: Peterhead take on Raith Rovers in League #183. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peterhead host Raith Rovers at Balmoor Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.