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Peterhead vs Lochee United — FA Cup 2019

Peterhead
Peterhead
FT
6 – 3
HT: 4 – 2
Lochee United
Lochee United
10/26/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundBalmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Peterhead43%
×Draw20%
Lochee United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
2.34
Lochee United
2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.83
Lochee United
2.00

allows per match

Peterhead
2.33
Lochee United
2.86

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
Lochee United+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Lochee United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
63%
Peterhead or Lochee United
80%
Draw or Lochee United
57%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
25%
Lochee United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
90%
Peterhead 2+ goals
67%
Peterhead 3+ goals
41%
Lochee United 1+ goals
89%
Lochee United 2+ goals
64%
Lochee United 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
54%
Lochee United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Lochee United away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.83 + Lochee United defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.34

Lochee United attack 2.00 + Peterhead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peterhead scores more
43%
level
20%
Lochee United scores more
37%

Peterhead at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Peterhead 6–3 Lochee United

Peterhead beat Lochee United 6-3 in FA Cup on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Balmoor Stadium in Peterhead.