Peterhead 1–2 Forfar Athletic: Result & Stats

Peterhead

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Forfar Athletic

12/23/2023

League Two · Round 17Balmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Peterhead50%

×Draw27%

Forfar Athletic24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchForfar Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.91

Peterhead

1.46

Forfar Athletic

0.91

Peterhead creates 60% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 90 away

1.72

creates per match

1.03

0.78

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Peterhead

1.72

Forfar Athletic

1.03

allows per match

Peterhead

0.78

Forfar Athletic

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Forfar Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

76%

Peterhead or Forfar Athletic

73%

Draw or Forfar Athletic

50%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

25%

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

77%

Peterhead 2+ goals

43%

Peterhead 3+ goals

18%

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

60%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

23%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

68%

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.78 · 54 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.72 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Forfar Athletic attack 1.03 + Peterhead defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Peterhead scores more

50%

level

27%

Forfar Athletic scores more

24%

Peterhead at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff