Forfar Athletic 1–1 Peterhead: Result & Stats

Forfar Athletic

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peterhead

N. Cannon 78'

K. Shanks 45+1'

12/17/2024

League Two · Round 14Alpha Projects Stadium @ Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Forfar Athletic58%

×Draw25%

Peterhead17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forfar AthleticExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.69

Forfar Athletic

1.55

Peterhead

0.69

Forfar Athletic creates 125% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 4 away

1.35

creates per match

0.25

1.13

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Forfar Athletic

1.35

Peterhead

0.25

allows per match

Forfar Athletic

1.13

Peterhead

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Peterhead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw

83%

Forfar Athletic or Peterhead

75%

Draw or Peterhead

42%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

31%

Peterhead wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

79%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

46%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

20%

Peterhead 1+ goals

50%

Peterhead 2+ goals

15%

Peterhead 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

78%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Peterhead away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.35 + Peterhead defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

Peterhead attack 0.25 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more

58%

level

25%

Peterhead scores more

17%

Forfar Athletic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

M. McCallum

45+1'

A. McCarthy

45+1'

K. Shanks↳ P. Pawlett

46'

R. MacLean← B. Rodden

53'

C. Dunne

60'

M. Barry← K. Shanks

69'

B. Armour← Sebastian Ross

74'

75'

77'

78'

78'

84'

Jason Brown← P. Pawlett

90+5'

B. Oluyemi

Forfar

Peterhead

13

16

2

4

19

A

▼

Pawlett

22

▼

8

29

21

12

10

⚽

▼

1

5

8

4

2

10

16

22

▼

Rodden

9

▼

Skelly

14

A

McLean

19

⚽

Cannon

Manager: J. Weir

46'▲R. MacLean←▼B. Rodden

75'▲F. Allan←▼J. Skelly

Forfar Athletic substitutes

7MacLean25Allan11Inglis6Hutchinson3Klimionek20Cocks21Paris

Manager: Jordon Brown

60'▲M. Barry←▼K. Shanks

69'▲B. Armour←▼Sebastian Ross

84'▲Jason Brown←▼P. Pawlett

Peterhead substitutes

77Barry7Armour5Brown9McAllister18Brown1McKenzie6Strachan23Duthie

Match Recap: Forfar Athletic vs Peterhead

Forfar Athletic and Peterhead drew 1-1 in League Two on December 17, 2024.

Goals: K. Shanks (45+1'), N. Cannon (78').

The match was played at Alpha Projects Stadium @ Station Park in Forfar.

Forfar Athletic vs Peterhead — League Two 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Forfar Athletic vs Peterhead