Peterhead 2–2 East Kilbride: Result & Stats

Peterhead

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

East Kilbride

R. McLean 120+9' (pen), 43'

D. Lyle 120+7' (pen)

R. Duncan 120+5' (pen)

A. McCarthy 120+3' (pen), 45'

A. McDonald 120+1' (pen)

C. McAninch 120+8' (pen)

C. Elliott 120+4' (pen)

N. McLaughlin 120+2' (pen)

João Victoria 65', 11'

1/22/2022

FA Cup · 4th RoundBalmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Peterhead33%

×Draw19%

East Kilbride48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchEast Kilbride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

2.54

Peterhead

2.10

East Kilbride

2.54

East Kilbride creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.83

creates per match

2.75

2.33

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Peterhead

1.83

East Kilbride

2.75

allows per match

Peterhead

2.33

East Kilbride

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

East Kilbride →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

52%

Peterhead or East Kilbride

81%

Draw or East Kilbride

67%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

17%

East Kilbride wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

88%

Peterhead 2+ goals

62%

Peterhead 3+ goals

35%

East Kilbride 1+ goals

92%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

72%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

41%

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.83 + East Kilbride defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.10

East Kilbride attack 2.75 + Peterhead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peterhead scores more

33%

level

19%

East Kilbride scores more

48%

East Kilbride at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

João Victoria↳ N. McLaughlin

43'

45'

53'

56'

59'

59'

J. Stainrod← B. Owens

65'

João Victoria↳ C. Elliott

71'

N. Payne← D. Wilson

71'

D. Lyle← G. Savoury

76'

R. Mclaughlin← C. Millar

77'

L. Kenny

81'

J. Finlay← João Victoria

89'

H. Ritchie

90'

C. McAninch← R. Smith

97'

Jordon Brown← H. Ritchie

109'

J. Brown

110'

J. Brown

120+1'

A. McDonaldPenalty

120+2'

N. McLaughlinPenalty

120+3'

A. McCarthyPenalty

120+4'

C. ElliottPenalty

120+5'

R. DuncanPenalty

120+6'

J. FinlayMissed penalty

120+7'

D. LylePenalty

120+8'

C. McAninchPenalty

120+9'

R. McLeanPenalty

Peterhead

East

▼

▼

⚽A

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽A

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽A

▼

⚽2

Manager: J. McInally

71'▲N. Payne←▼D. Wilson

71'▲D. Lyle←▼G. Savoury

97'▲Jordon Brown←▼H. Ritchie

Peterhead substitutes

14Payne99Lyle18Brown27Cullen8Brown

Manager: C. Aitken

59'▲J. Stainrod←▼B. Owens

76'▲R. Mclaughlin←▼C. Millar

81'▲J. Finlay←▼João Victoria

90'▲C. McAninch←▼R. Smith

East Kilbride substitutes

12Stainrod18Mclaughlin14Finlay16McAninch15Miller17McDonald20Orr